PolyTerminal
How it is set
Each Up/Down market is defined by the asset it tracks, its start time and how long it runs. At the start, Polymarket takes the TWAP, a time-weighted average of the price, from a Chainlink stream. That number is the price to beat.
At the end it takes the TWAP from the same stream, and the two are compared. Because both come from one stream, they are measured in the same way.
An average is not a single tick. Since Aug 7, 2026, crypto Up/Down markets have used a TWAP instead of one price snapshot, and the lookback is 60 seconds for the 5-minute, 15-minute and 4-hour markets. The changelog states no lookback for other market lengths.
What decides the result
The inputs and the comparison are fixed, so identical data always leads to the same outcome and there is nothing to propose or dispute: these markets are decided without UMA's proposal-and-dispute process, unlike markets that go through the Optimistic Oracle.
A common mix-up
The price to beat is an average taken from a named stream, so it can differ from the last trade or from the price a chart shows at the first second of the window. Polymarket's documentation adds that the rules of a market, not its title, define how it resolves.
Sources and checks
Every rule quoted in this article comes from the registry below. Each row names the official page and the day it was compared with the text.
All 6 rules used in this article
| Rule | Value | Official source | Checked |
|---|---|---|---|
| What sets the price to beat of an Up/Down market | the Chainlink time-weighted average price (TWAP) at the start of its window | docs.polymarket.com/ | |
| Where the price to beat and the final price come from | the same Chainlink TWAP stream | docs.polymarket.com/ | |
| How an Up/Down market is decided | Up if the closing TWAP is at or above the price to beat and Down if it is below | docs.polymarket.com/ | |
| Day crypto Up/Down markets began to resolve on a Chainlink TWAP | Aug 7, 2026 | docs.polymarket.com/ | |
| Chainlink TWAP lookback of the 5-minute, 15-minute and 4-hour crypto markets | 60 seconds | docs.polymarket.com/ | |
| Up/Down markets and the UMA process | without UMA's proposal-and-dispute process | docs.polymarket.com/ |
Related terms
Read the full guide
Predict · 10 min
Polymarket Up/Down Crypto Markets Explained
How TWAP-settled Polymarket Up/Down crypto markets work: the price to beat, Chainlink lookback windows, the taker delay and fees, with a worked example.
Basics · 10 min
How Polymarket Markets Resolve: UMA Process
How a Polymarket market resolves through the UMA oracle: the rules that decide it, proposals and bonds, disputes, the vote, and what winners redeem.
PolyTerminal is an independent interface for Polymarket and is not operated or endorsed by Polymarket. Orders placed through PolyTerminal carry PolyTerminal’s Polymarket builder code, and PolyTerminal may charge a builder fee on top of Polymarket’s own fees. This page is educational and is not investment advice. Rules were compared with the official documentation on Oct 19, 2026; check the source before you act on a number.