Polymarket Up/Down Crypto Markets Explained

What is an Up/Down market?

An Up/Down market is a prediction market on the direction of a crypto price over a set stretch of time. Polymarket's Resolution page says each market specifies a pair of assets, a start time and a length of time, and it illustrates the idea with BTC/USD over a specific one-hour window, for which the changelog names no lookback. The outcomes are Up and Down. At resolution a winning token is redeemable for $1.00 each and a losing token is worthless.

Which durations exist? The pages cited here give no full list. The changelog entry of Aug 7, 2026 names 5-minute, 15-minute and 4-hour markets, and the Liquidity Rewards page names the same three crypto durations as markets that settle on TWAP. The fee entries of January to March also mention hourly, daily and weekly crypto markets, without saying which are Up/Down markets.

The rules below are the ones the documentation gives for TWAP-settled markets. Seen in Polymarket's public market records on Oct 19, 2026, and not described in the documentation: Up/Down market pages of other durations can name their own resolution source and tie rule, so read the rules text of the market you trade.

What is the price to beat?

On a TWAP-settled market the price to beat is the TWAP at the market's start time, and the final price is the TWAP at the moment the duration ends. The Resolution page says both come from the same Chainlink TWAP stream, so a quote from another source need not match either.

What is a TWAP, and how long is the lookback window?

A time-weighted average price (TWAP) is the average price of an asset across a set lookback window. Rather than reading one tick, you average the price over a stretch of time in which every moment counts equally, and that stretch is the lookback window. Chainlink computes the averages, and the pages cited here do not describe its sampling, so the calculation below only illustrates the idea.

How long is the lookback window for the markets themselves? Only the changelog gives figures. It sets a 60-second lookback for 15-minute and 4-hour markets from Aug 7, 2026, and for 5-minute markets from Aug 14. For other durations the entries are silent, so do not assume the same figure.

How is the outcome decided?

Polymarket's Resolution page names two resolution sources: UMA for prediction markets, Chainlink TWAP for up-down markets. For the TWAP-settled markets the rule is one comparison: Up wins when the final price is at least the price to beat, and Down wins when the final price is lower. Under this rule an equal price counts as Up, so a tie goes to Up, and a market's own rules say how that market handles a tie.

The page adds that, because the inputs and the comparison are fixed, the result is reached without UMA's proposal-and-dispute process. So no UMA proposal, challenge period or vote applies to these markets; the UMA guide explains them. Once a market resolves, no one can buy or sell its tokens any more.

How did the lookback windows change in August 2026?

The changelog says crypto up/down markets moved from a single price snapshot to Chainlink TWAPs on Aug 7, 2026, for the price to beat and the final price alike, and it names three durations. 5-minute markets started on a 30-second lookback; on Aug 14, at 00:00 UTC, they moved to a 60-second one. See the timeline of 2026 rule changes for every entry.

Where can developers read the same TWAP?

Polymarket streams Chainlink-computed TWAPs to developers. The Real-Time Data page describes a fixed 60-second window, and the PolyBolt WebSocket carries it on the channel price.crypto.twap, which Polymarket's message reference describes as carrying the Chainlink TWAPs that crypto up/down markets are resolved with. The channel needs CLOB API credentials (CLOB is Polymarket's central limit order book) and covers btcusd, ethusd, solusd, xrpusd, dogeusd, hypeusd, bnbusd and zecusd.

What is the taker delay on crypto markets?

A taker is the trader whose order matches one already resting in the book. A marketable order could match straight away, but on some markets it is held first. Polymarket's Order Lifecycle page says the taker delay applies to selected crypto and finance up/down markets. After the hold the checks run again, and the order either matches or goes onto the book.

While it waits, the order remains pending and cannot be canceled; if the checks fail when the hold ends, the order is rejected and does not match. For crypto markets the changelog changed the length twice: from 250 ms to 50 ms on Aug 17, 2026, then to 150 ms on Sep 4. The Order Lifecycle page also covers finance up/down markets, whose delay the changelog does not mention, so this guide covers the crypto ones.

To test one market, query the public CLOB markets endpoint with the market's condition ID (its unique identifier) and look for a flag called itode set to true. The order types guide explains the order types themselves.

What do fees look like on crypto markets?

The taker fee follows fee = C × feeRate × p × (1 - p), with C as the number of shares, p as the share price and the crypto feeRate at 0.07. Makers pay no fee and can earn a rebate funded by taker fees; the crypto share is 20%. The fee peaks at a price of 50 cents: for 100 shares it is $1.75.

Fees began on the 15-minute markets on Jan 5, 2026 and, from Mar 6, reached all crypto markets, including the 1H, 4H, daily and weekly ones; the changelog adds that only markets created after March 6 are affected. The fees guide has the full rate table and the rebates, and the fee calculator computes a fee for your price and size.

A walk through one window

The figure is a schematic: the documentation does not draw a lookback window, so each average is shown ending at the moment it is read. The sequence is:

1. The market fixes a pair, a start time and a length of time.
2. At the start, Chainlink's TWAP is read. That is the price to beat.
3. While the market runs, takers pay the fee, and the taker delay applies where it exists.
4. At the end, the TWAP is read again. That is the final price.
5. Up wins if the final price is at least the price to beat, otherwise Down wins.

Common misreadings and what the rules say

• "The price at the last second decides it." On a TWAP market the rules compare two averages, not two ticks. A spike that lasts a few seconds moves the final price by only a few seconds' share of the lookback window.
• "The price to beat is the price when I bought." It is the TWAP at the market's start time, and it is the same for everyone.
• "A flat finish is a refund, or counts as Down." On a market that follows the Resolution page's rule, an equal price counts as Up.
• "Anyone can dispute the result, as on other markets." For up-down markets the Resolution page describes a fixed comparison without UMA's proposal and dispute process.
• "I can cancel while my order waits." An order inside the delay is pending and cannot be canceled.

What to check before you trade

Polymarket's Market Details page describes the fields that define a market. Before you send an order, look at:

• The rules text. The Resolution page says every market has resolution rules that specify the resolution source, the end date and how edge cases are handled, and that the title states the question, but the rules decide how it resolves. Confirm which resolution source the market names, how it handles a tie, and its duration.
• The status. The page notes that a market can exist before its order book opens and stay discoverable after it closes, so check that the market is active, not closed and accepting orders.
• The fee. For one market, read the fee parameters in the market's details; the fee calculator turns the rate into a number for your size.
• The taker delay. Whether the market has it, and which figure applies.
• The price grid. Tick size and minimum order size can differ by market, so take the active value from the market itself and do not assume a fixed increment.

PolyTerminal is an independent interface for Polymarket and is not operated or endorsed by Polymarket. Orders placed through PolyTerminal carry PolyTerminal’s Polymarket builder code, and PolyTerminal may charge a builder fee on top of Polymarket’s own fees. This page is educational and is not investment advice. Rules were compared with the official documentation on Oct 19, 2026; check the source before you act on a number.